Why 500 Hybrid Buses Make a Difference

I hope to see GM explain in the next blog entry it's hybrid strategy. It seems like a two mode hybrid for busses, trucks, and SUV's, while the smaller cars will go witha a series hybrid like the Volt.

I noticed some news about the Sequal this week. Surprised there was not blog entry or boasting about it. It is interesting that it contines to use a form of the 'skateboard' Hy-wire concept developed five years ago. It will be a dream come true if the Volt uses in-wheel motors and a form of the skateboard concept. I also can't wait to hear what type of fuel engine will be used in the Volt since it does not need the revving of a traditional engine! This is so exciting if it becomes a reality.

I suspect, per Stan's comments, that the idea behind 2-mode hybrids is in utilizing an existing platform for both hybrid as well as conventional versions. Weight carrying and hauling capacity may also be a factor.

Certainly I would echo his thoughts that whether using teh "skaetboard" concept or at least 4 independent wheel motors under full electric drive that virtually any type of powerplant could be utilized. But isn't the beauty of such a system as the Volt that, for example, in a car sized similar to a Camaro, that you do not need a 400hp gasoline engine to achieve the same level of straightline performance - that a much much smaller engine will do. However instead of simply pulling a smaller existing engine off the shelf the packaging latitude does offer the opportunity to re-look at such engines as a vertical shaft radial.

I wanted to add that the beauty of the Hy-Drive four wheel drive is that there is no differential as with a single electric motor system. The four motors can also handle the regenerative braking. I guess they will only be used if it is cost effective. This would vindicate all the money spent on the 'Skateboard' concept that we have been hearing about for most of this decade. I believe it will be the ultimate evolution of the automobile - in-wheel electric drive.

Now, over the years, we at General Motors have taken a lot of heat from environmental activists. But I personally know that we're committed to energy diversity and displacing petroleum. That’s why we’re initially applying our hybrid technology to the highest-volume, highest consumption vehicles, such as buses, trucks and SUVs.

I think your calculations regarding the improvements in fuel economy in large vehicles and the commensurate drop in gasoline demand are flawed. They're made under the assumption that everyone who would buy an SUV now would be buying an SUV in the future.

If gas stays above $4/gallon, people will be looking to change to a much higher mileage cars, not a slightly better SUV. People won't be replacing Tahoes with new Tahoes. They'll be replacing them with Priuses and hybrid Camries and Accords or Auras. So they'll go from 16mpg to 30+mpg, not 16mpg to 20mpg, unless they absolutely need the capability of an SUV, which many people will find they don't.

So your gamble, that proportion of SUVs sold will increase or remain the same, is flawed. If GM hopes to survive they need to improve their car offerings, not their SUVs and trucks.

While I'm sure it's great that your SUVs will eventually get a whopping 20 miles per gallon, I will never consider something that gets that kind of mileage.

Until GM makes a car that gets over 40 mpg, they're not getting any of my money. And until I see a car like that, I'm not going to be convinced that GM is committed to doing anything more than maintaining the status quo for as long as possible.

This is reinforced by comments made by Bob Lutz regarding small cars not being profitable, the fact that the "Triplets" aren't being released in the US, and the vaporware called the Volt.

And I'm not alone in this. Most of my friends are also worried about the price of gas, and don't want to get stuck in something that gets sub-par fuel economy, and that means avoiding GM dealerships.

Of course, they can always take the bus.

this is where hybrids make sense where the fuel saving is significant. adding 10 MPG to a small car already getting 30 MPG does not save much fuel

Can somebody tell me how much a prius saves over a year? how many gallons of gas? I would like to see a comparison! I think Gm needs to market these buses a lot more so people can see that GM is doing their part.

Paul,5/16, 4:43 PM:

Right.

Paul,

Your comment about the Volt being "vaporware" is completely unfounded and reveals your bias against anything GM does. It's people like you that won't even give GM a chance. Do you think GM will be motivated by consumers who completely disregard an excellent concept as soon as it is revealed, just because it is a GM?

What evidence do you have that the Volt is "vaporware"?

We told GM this months ago almost a year ago now that while Toyota was draping itself in the green flag pushing Priuses at premium prices making a pittance effort at petroleum's pendulum prices. GM is taking big chunks of CO2 emissions out of the air and saving barrels of oil making the quietest, pollution reducing and fuel efficient buses known to man.

Flying the green flag of environmentalism is not something that you believe in your heart do quietly and avoid attention, not when you are a company who is fighting the very perception that you are irresponsible. It is something you hype. That is why they call it a hype-bred. We told you, a couple of these commercials explaining what you just said will do wonders for your image. And I told you this a while back...

Perceptions are for sale.

They are bought by something called an advertising expense. People are avoiding the GM lots all together because of perception, myth and lies.

Up until now GM and Ford are the only two companies in the world that can claim that their vehicles and technology actually made a country of large size energy independent. Hybrids by themselves are a nice step but E85 is a leap, both together is the only way forward. GM is the only automobile company that can say it runs a plant off of energy from a former dump.

Still after all of this success you prefer to be a closet environmentalist. I just say this,

In short,

GM still does not know how important perceptions are, it knows little about what Americans are perceiving and how those perceptions are shaped.

I ran into a co-worker today and he was telling me Hummer is owned by Toyota, caught me in one of those rare instances when I didn't feel like correcting him. My own mom thinks Honda is an American company. And of course, nobody, I mean nobody has a clue GM makes or has any experience whatever at making hybrids-even some so called experts. In other words you gotta beat the drum, toot your horn, you gotta tell somebody.

Hay look, people are not shy about their ignorance, you can't be shy about your success. And with some of the advice and comments you are getting I would want to remain anonymous too. But the fact is I stand in the corner here with you because I believe GM is hundred times more effective, responsible and important to America its environment and the economy than any transplant could ever even dream of being. It's too bad we are the only ones of about a handful that believe it.

Fastlane short...

You can sell more cars if people knew you sell hybrid buses.

Tyler S.,5/17, 11:11am:

Right.

You can sell more cars if people knew you sell hybrid buses. - Edward Hayes

Only if they're shopping for buses.

GM does not make one vehicle than an environmentalist like me would actually want to be seen in, other than their hybrid buses. Now, if they ever get the magical battery technology they're looking to put in the Volt, they might start looking attractive to environmentally conscious car buyers.

But why would someone buy a Cobalt when they can buy a Corolla that gets 15% better fuel economy for about the same price? Why buy an Aura hybrid when they can get a Prius that gets almost 45% better fuel economy.

Let's compare apples to apples: An Aura Green Line to a Camry Hybrid. The Camry is $4,000 more, but for that money you get an extra 33 horsepower and an extra 12mpg city and 3mpg highway, not to mention more standard features and a larger interior.

Fastlane short:

If you want to buy a car with good fuel economy, you DO NOT go to a GM dealership.

Hybrids by themselves are a nice step but E85 is a leap, both together is the only way forward.

E85 is only a leap forward if you can figure out a way to make it that doesn't use food, pesticides, petroleum-based fertilizers, and more energy than you get out of it.

E85, however, is wonderful if you're looking for a way to get tons of government support to maintain the status quo.

What evidence do you have that the Volt is "vaporware"?

1) It's being heavily promoted by GM, a company who can't seem to make something the size of an Aveo get over 40 mpg, as evidence that they care about fuel economy and energy independence.

2) It's going to be released as soon as they get the right battery technology, which is continually coming "real soon now."

Anyone who keeps up on technology news knows that these are the two signs of vaporware.

Want to prove me wrong? Show me a Volt that I can actually buy.

I didn't use to be this skeptical of GM. Before the Astra was announced I was actually hopeful that maybe they actually "got" it. It was an award winning car that got great gas mileage, and it was coming to the US. Then I got the details: Just one engine (1.8L/140hp "ecotec") and two transmission options (5spd manual and 4 spd automatic), none of which did better than 34mpg highway.

Then there were the Triplets. Again, I thought GM had "got it." Three great small cars, and a diesel! Then I hear they're not even coming to the US. Worse than that, Bob says that you can't make a small car profitable in the US. They don't get it. They're just greenwashing.

So now GM has a lot to do to win back my confidence.

With regard to skepticism about the Volt, there's been a lot of discussion about that on this blog since it debuted in January. I summarized my own reasons in a comment dated March 31st on "Charging Ahead with Volt," which was posted on March 24th (use the "Archives" link at left to find it -- I'd give a direct URL, but the blog's spam filters keep intercepting any comment I post with URLs in it!). In brief -- past experience. GM has consistently spun their reasons for discontinuing and crushing the EV1, and they continue to do so; until they repudiate this "spin cycle," we can't trust promises that are not backed up by actual for-sale (not merely for-lease and three years from the crusher) hardware.

I think Bob Lutz is right when he says GM can't make small cars in the US at a profit; unfortunately, I don't think the market for gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs will be sustainable for much longer.
Maybe the answer for GM is to purchase (and rebadge as Chevys) some US-made Kias, Hyundais, Hondas and Toyotas...

if the cost of gasoline is a BIG deal in this country WHY are people buying more at a higher price? people who do not look to buy GM cars have heard the stories about the defects in the engine,transmissions and other parts of the car that go bad after the warranty is up and cost $$$$$ to fix. perceived reliability not fuel mileage is the problem GM has to fix. i understand the GM now uses a 300,000 mile durability test for their drivetrains which is why they now can give the 100,000 power train warranty

No matter what your opinion about the General or SUVs is, this is a good step. It is one thing to support public transportation; it is another to help develop public transportation vehicles that are fuel-efficient and produce fewer carbon emissions. I hope GM's next gas/electric vehicles turn out better than the current VUE Green Line.

It's great to see that GM is making hybrid buses, but it would be a lot more impressive if GM were to roll out minivans, wagons, and other family vehicles that (by whatever means, hybrid/fuel cells/plug-in/etc.) get over 35 mpg.

Toyota may have the market for small cars, but there's a lot of opportunity to get medium sized cars with good mileage. Instead GM keeps making large autos & SUVs with poor mileage and continues to lose market share.

If GM truly sees the light then it should make a commitment that all new GM vehicles in design will get significantly better milage per gallon than their predecessor. This year's concept cars were overwhelmingly low mileage with a few notable exceptions. The focus on flex fuel misses the point entirely.

Another problem that needs to be recognized is that the barrier to entry in the hybrid car business is higher than many people understand.

The Honda Insight came out in 1999 and got 70 MPG. I know this is true because mine is sitting in my garage right now with 70.6 as a lifetime average MPG, and I drive at the speed limit and use my A/C. The Prius and Civic hybrids, both of which have been out for several years, get in the neighborhood of 50 MPG and are regular five-seat sedans.

Presumably Honda and Toyota are working to improve on this, so the target isn't 40 MPG, it's 60 or 70.

Public transit? Such as the old, highly-efficient street car lines that were bought up and dismantled by a GM shell corporation in the 50s?

Now GM wants to pretend it is being responsible after decades of producing huge, gas-guzzling trucks?

Please...

Every reduction in emissions is a big help; this is not small either. It should be adopted everywhere.

Hydrogen seems to be the fuel source of the future, and it looks like Iceland's renewable energy policy is on the right track.

It sounds like the rest of the world needs to take a page out of Iceland's renewable energy book and do its part in making this world a greener place to live.

It look's like GM is also looking to a greener future in more ways than one.